Tropical Storm Karen is actually drawing dry air into south Florida the next two days, bringing us mostly sunny skies, hot afternoons and only very slim rain chances. This continues through Saturday, so don’t forget your sunglasses for your weekend plans!
By Sunday we see some changes, Karen will start drawing in some moisture, leading to showers and thunderstorms. We will actually see a second pass of this tropical moisture toward the middle of next week as well.
Tropical Storm Karen is down to 60 mph sustained and is still moving northwest. There are a lot of factors here so let me break it down—
Karen will be "sucked" up to the northwest by a cold front currently in Texas. Currently, wind shear has slowed the motion of the storm, but it is expected to pick back up in the next 24 hours.
Landfall is crucial for strength and there is a LOT of disagreement on the location. If the front picks up the storm early, landfall will be in Louisiana likely as a Tropical Storm. If it is a little later it will make landfall in the Florida panhandle and it will be a bit stronger, potentially a weak Category 1 hurricane.
REGARDLESS of landfall—the Florida panhandle has already seen record rainfall this year and is extremely vulnerable to flooding right now. They will get soaked either way. Flooding is a significant concern.
Click Here for the latest on Karen from the National Hurricane Center.